Everyone feels something when they’re in a really good starry place on a really good starry night and they look up and see this:
Some people stick with the traditional—feeling
struck by the epic beauty or blown away by the insane scale of the
universe. Personally, I go for the old “existential meltdown followed by
acting weird for the next half hour.” But everyone feels something.
Physicist Enrico Fermi felt something too—“Where is everybody?”
A really starry sky seems vast—but all
we’re looking at is our very local neighborhood. On the very best
nights, we can see up to about 2,500 stars (roughly one
hundred-millionth of the stars in our galaxy), and almost all of them
are less than 1,000 light years away from us (or 1% of the diameter of
the Milky Way). So what we’re really looking at is this:
When confronted with the topic of stars and
galaxies, a question that tantalizes most humans is, “Is there other
intelligent life out there?” Let’s put some numbers to it:
As many stars as there are in our galaxy (100 to
400 billion), there are roughly an equal number of galaxies in the
observable universe—so for every star in the colossal Milky Way, there’s
a whole galaxy out there. All together, that comes out to the typically quoted range of between 10^22 and 10^24 total stars, which means that for every grain of sand on every beach on Earth, there are 10,000 stars out there.
The science world isn’t in total agreement about
what percentage of those stars are “sun-like” (similar in size,
temperature, and luminosity)—opinions typically range from 5% to 20%.
Going with the most conservative side of that (5%), and the lower end
for the number of total stars (10^22), gives us 500 quintillion, or 500
billion billion sun-like stars.
There’s also a debate over what percentage of
those sun-like stars might be orbited by an Earth-like planet (one with
similar temperature conditions that could have liquid water and
potentially support life similar to that on Earth). Some say it’s as
high as 50%, but let’s go with the more conservative 22% that came out
of a recent Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS) study.
That suggests that there’s a potentially-habitable Earth-like planet
orbiting at least 1% of the total stars in the universe—a total of 100
billion billion Earth-like planets.
So there are 100 Earth-like planets for every grain of sand in the world. Think about that next time you’re on the beach.
Moving forward, we have no choice but to get
completely speculative. Let’s imagine that after billions of years in
existence, 1% of Earth-like planets develop life (if that’s true, every
grain of sand would represent one planet with life on it). And imagine
that on 1% of those planets, the life advances to an
intelligent level like it did here on Earth. That would mean there were
10 quadrillion, or 10 million billion intelligent civilizations in the
observable universe.
Moving back to just our galaxy, and doing the
same math on the lowest estimate for stars in the Milky Way (100
billion), we’d estimate that there are 1 billion Earth-like planets and
100,000 intelligent civilizations in our galaxy.[1]
SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence)
is an organization dedicated to listening for signals from other
intelligent life. If we’re right that there are 100,000 or more
intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, and even a fraction of them are
sending out radio waves or laser beams or other modes of attempting to
contact others, shouldn’t SETI’s satellite array pick up all kinds of signals?
But it hasn’t. Not one. Ever.
Where is everybody?
It gets stranger. Our sun is relatively young in the lifespan of the universe. There are far older stars with far older Earth-like planets, which should in theory mean civilizations far more advanced than our own. As an example, let’s compare our 4.54 billion-year-old Earth to a hypothetical 8 billion-year-old Planet X.
If Planet X has a similar story to Earth, let’s look at where their
civilization would be today (using the orange timespan as a reference to
show how huge the green timespan is):
The technology and knowledge of a civilization
only 1,000 years ahead of us could be as shocking to us as our world
would be to a medieval person. A civilization 1 million years ahead of
us might be as incomprehensible to us as human culture is to
chimpanzees. And Planet X is 3.4 billion years ahead of us…
There’s something called the Kardashev Scale, which helps us group intelligent civilizations into three broad categories by the amount of energy they use:
A Type I Civilization has the ability to use all
of the energy on their planet. We’re not quite a Type I Civilization,
but we’re close. (Carl Sagan created a formula for this scale which puts
us at a Type 0.7 Civilization.)
A Type III Civilization blows the other two away, accessing power comparable to that of the entire Milky Way galaxy.
If this level of advancement sounds hard to
believe, remember Planet X above and their 3.4 billion years of further
development. If a civilization on Planet X were similar to ours and were
able to survive all the way to Type III level, the natural thought is
that they’d probably have mastered inter-stellar travel by now, possibly
even colonizing the entire galaxy.
Continuing to speculate, if 1% of intelligent
life survives long enough to become a potentially galaxy-colonizing Type
III Civilization, our calculations above suggest that there should be
at least 1,000 Type III Civilizations in our galaxy alone—and given the
power of such a civilization, their presence would likely be pretty
noticeable. And yet, we see nothing, hear nothing, and we’re visited by
no one.
So where is everybody?
Welcome to the Fermi Paradox.
We have no answer to the Fermi Paradox—the best
we can do is “possible explanations.” And if you ask ten different
scientists what their hunch is about the correct one, you’ll get ten
different answers. You know when you hear about humans of the past
debating whether the Earth was round or if the sun revolved around the
Earth or thinking that lightning happened because of Zeus, and they seem
so primitive and in the dark? That’s about where we are with this
topic.
In taking a look at some of the most-discussed
possible explanations for the Fermi Paradox, let’s divide them into two
broad categories—those explanations which assume that there’s no sign of
Type II and Type III Civilizations because there are none of them out there, and those which assume they’re out there and we’re not seeing or hearing anything for other reasons:
Explanation Group 1: There are no signs of higher (Type II and III) civilizations because there are no higher civilizations in existence.
Those who subscribe to Group 1 explanations point
to something called the non-exclusivity problem, which rebuffs any
theory that says, “There are higher civilizations, but none of them have
made any kind of contact with us because they all _____.” Group 1
people look at the math, which says there should be so many thousands (or millions) of higher civilizations, that at least one of
them would be an exception to the rule. Even if a theory held for
99.99% of higher civilizations, the other .01% would behave differently
and we’d become aware of their existence.
Therefore, say Group 1 explanations, it must be
that there are no super-advanced civilizations. And since the math
suggests that there are thousands of them just in our own galaxy, something else must be going on.
This something else is called the Great Filter.
f this theory is true, the big question is, Where in the timeline does the Great Filter occur?
It turns out that when it comes to the fate of
humankind, this question is very important. Depending on where the Great
Filter occurs, we’re left with three possible realities: We’re rare,
we’re first, or we’re fucked.
1. We’re rare (the Great Filter is behind us)
One hope we have is that the Great Filter is behind us—we managed to surpass it, which would mean it’s extremely rare for life to make it to our level of intelligence. The diagram below shows only two species making it past, and we’re one of them.
This scenario would explain why there are no Type III Civilizations… but it would also mean that we could
be one of the few exceptions now that we’ve made it this far. It would
mean we have hope. On the surface, this sounds a bit like people 500
years ago suggesting that the Earth is the center of the universe—it
implies that we’re special. However, something scientists call
“observation selection effect” suggests that anyone who is pondering
their own rarity is inherently part of an intelligent life “success
story”—and whether they’re actually rare or quite common, the thoughts
they ponder and conclusions they draw will be identical. This forces us
to admit that being special is at least a possibility.
And if we are special, when exactly did we become special—i.e. which step did we surpass that almost everyone else gets stuck on?
One possibility: The Great Filter could be at the
very beginning—it might be incredibly unusual for life to begin at all.
This is a candidate because it took about a billion years of Earth’s
existence to finally happen, and because we have tried extensively to
replicate that event in labs and have never been able to do it. If this
is indeed the Great Filter, it would mean that not only is there no
intelligent life out there, there may be no other life at all.
Another possibility: The Great Filter could be
the jump from the simple prokaryote cell to the complex eukaryote cell.
After prokaryotes came into being, they remained that way for almost two billion years
before making the evolutionary jump to being complex and having a
nucleus. If this is the Great Filter, it would mean the universe is
teeming with simple prokaryote cells and almost nothing beyond that.
There are a number of other possibilities—some
even think the most recent leap we’ve made to our current intelligence
is a Great Filter candidate. While the leap from semi-intelligent life
(chimps) to intelligent life (humans) doesn’t at first seem like a
miraculous step, Steven Pinker rejects the idea
of an inevitable “climb upward” of evolution: “Since evolution does not
strive for a goal but just happens, it uses the adaptation most useful
for a given ecological niche, and the fact that, on Earth, this led to
technological intelligence only once so far may suggest that this
outcome of natural selection is rare and hence by no means a certain
development of the evolution of a tree of life.”
Most leaps do not qualify as Great
Filter candidates. Any possible Great Filter must be one-in-a-billion
type thing where one or more total freak occurrences need to happen to
provide a crazy exception—for that reason, something like the jump from
single-cell to multi-cellular life is ruled out, because it has occurred
as many as 46 times,
in isolated incidents, just on this planet alone. For the same reason,
if we were to find a fossilized eukaryote cell on Mars, it would rule
the above “simple-to-complex cell” leap out as a possible Great Filter
(as well as anything before that point on the evolutionary
chain)—because if it happened on both Earth and Mars, it’s almost definitely not a one-in-a-billion freak occurrence.
2. We’re the first
For Group 1 Thinkers, if the Great Filter is not behind us, the one hope
we have is that conditions in the universe are just recently, for the
first time since the Big Bang, reaching a place that would allow
intelligent life to develop. In that case, we and many other species may
be on our way to super-intelligence, and it simply hasn’t
happened yet. We happen to be here at the right time to become one of
the first super-intelligent civilizations.
One example of a phenomenon that could make this
realistic is the prevalence of gamma-ray bursts, insanely huge
explosions that we’ve observed in distant galaxies. In the same way that
it took the early Earth a few hundred million years before the
asteroids and volcanoes died down and life became possible, it could be
that the first chunk of the universe’s existence was full of cataclysmic
events like gamma-ray bursts that would incinerate everything nearby
from time to time and prevent any life from developing past a certain
stage. Now, perhaps, we’re in the midst of an astrobiological phase transition and this is the first time any life has been able to evolve for this long, uninterrupted.
3. We’re fucked (the Great Filter is ahead of us)
If we’re neither rare nor early, Group 1 thinkers conclude that the Great Filter must be in our future. This would suggest that life regularly evolves to where we are, but that something prevents life from going much further and reaching high intelligence in almost all cases—and we’re unlikely to be an exception.
One possible future Great Filter is a
regularly-occurring cataclysmic natural event, like the above-mentioned
gamma-ray bursts, except they’re unfortunately not done yet and it’s
just a matter of time before all life on Earth is suddenly wiped out by
one. Another candidate is the possible inevitability that nearly all
intelligent civilizations end up destroying themselves once a certain
level of technology is reached.
This is why Oxford University philosopher Nick Bostrom says that
“no news is good news.” The discovery of even simple life on Mars would
be devastating, because it would cut out a number of potential Great
Filters behind us. And if we were to find fossilized complex
life on Mars, Bostrom says “it would be by far the worst news ever
printed on a newspaper cover,” because it would mean The Great Filter is
almost definitely ahead of us—ultimately dooming the species.
Bostrom believes that when it comes to the Fermi Paradox, “the silence
of the night sky is golden.”
Explanation Group 2: Type II and III intelligent civilizations are out there—and there are logical reasons why we might not have heard from them.
Group 2 explanations get rid of any notion that
we’re rare or special or the first at anything—on the contrary, they
believe in the Mediocrity Principle,
whose starting point is that there is nothing unusual or rare about our
galaxy, solar system, planet, or level of intelligence, until evidence
proves otherwise. They’re also much less quick to assume that the lack
of evidence of higher intelligence beings is evidence of their
nonexistence—emphasizing the fact that our search for signals stretches
only about 100 light years away from us (0.1% across the galaxy) and
suggesting a number of possible explanations. Here are 10:
Possibility 1) Super-intelligent life could very well have already visited Earth, but before we were here. In
the scheme of things, sentient humans have only been around for about
50,000 years, a little blip of time. If contact happened before then, it
might have made some ducks flip out and run into the water and that’s
it. Further, recorded history only goes back 5,500 years—a group of
ancient hunter-gatherer tribes may have experienced some crazy alien shit, but they had no good way to tell anyone in the future about it.
Possibility 2) The galaxy has been colonized, but we just live in some desolate rural area of the galaxy. The
Americas may have been colonized by Europeans long before anyone in a
small Inuit tribe in far northern Canada realized it had happened. There
could be an urbanization component to the interstellar dwellings of
higher species, in which all the neighboring solar systems in a certain
area are colonized and in communication, and it would be impractical and
purposeless for anyone to deal with coming all the way out to the
random part of the spiral where we live.
Possibility 3) The entire concept of physical colonization is a hilariously backward concept to a more advanced species. Remember
the picture of the Type II Civilization above with the sphere around
their star? With all that energy, they might have created a perfect
environment for themselves that satisfies their every need. They might
have crazy-advanced ways of reducing their need for resources and zero
interest in leaving their happy utopia to explore the cold, empty,
undeveloped universe.
An even more advanced civilization might view the entire physical world
as a horribly primitive place, having long ago conquered their own
biology and uploaded their brains to a virtual reality, eternal-life
paradise. Living in the physical world of biology, mortality, wants, and
needs might seem to them the way we view primitive ocean species living
in the frigid, dark sea. FYI, thinking about another life form having
bested mortality makes me incredibly jealous and upset.
Possibility 4) There are
scary predator civilizations out there, and most intelligent life knows
better than to broadcast any outgoing signals and advertise their
location. This is an unpleasant concept and would help explain
the lack of any signals being received by the SETI satellites. It also
means that we might be the super naive newbies who are being unbelievably stupid
and risky by ever broadcasting outward signals. There’s a debate going
on currently about whether we should engage in METI (Messaging to
Extraterrestrial Intelligence—the reverse of SETI) or not, and most
people say we should not. Stephen Hawking warns, “If aliens visit us,
the outcome would be much as when Columbus landed in America, which
didn’t turn out well for the Native Americans.” Even Carl Sagan (a
general believer that any civilization advanced enough for interstellar
travel would be altruistic, not hostile) called
the practice of METI “deeply unwise and immature,” and recommended that
“the newest children in a strange and uncertain cosmos should listen
quietly for a long time, patiently learning about the universe and
comparing notes, before shouting into an unknown jungle that we do not
understand.” Scary.
Possibility 5) There’s only one instance of higher-intelligent life—a “superpredator” civilization (like humans are here on Earth)—who is far
more advanced than everyone else and keeps it that way by exterminating
any intelligent civilization once they get past a certain level. This
would suck. The way it might work is that it’s an inefficient use of
resources to exterminate all emerging intelligences, maybe because most
die out on their own. But past a certain point, the super beings make
their move—because to them, an emerging intelligent species becomes like
a virus as it starts to grow and spread. This theory suggests that
whoever was the first in the galaxy to reach intelligence won,
and now no one else has a chance. This would explain the lack of
activity out there because it would keep the number of super-intelligent
civilizations to just one.
Possibility 6) There’s
plenty of activity and noise out there, but our technology is too
primitive and we’re listening for the wrong things. Like
walking into a modern-day office building, turning on a walkie-talkie,
and when you hear no activity (which of course you wouldn’t hear because
everyone’s texting, not using walkie-talkies), determining that the
building must be empty. Or maybe, as Carl Sagan has pointed out, it
could be that our minds work exponentially faster or slower than another
form of intelligence out there—e.g. it takes them 12 years to say
“Hello,” and when we hear that communication, it just sounds like white
noise to us.
Possibility 7) We are receiving contact from other intelligent life, but the government is hiding it.The
more I learn about the topic, the more this seems like an idiotic
theory, but I had to mention it because it’s talked about so much.
Possibility 8) Higher civilizations are aware of us and observing us (AKA the “Zoo Hypothesis”). As
far as we know, super-intelligent civilizations exist in a
tightly-regulated galaxy, and our Earth is treated like part of a vast
and protected national park, with a strict “Look but don’t touch” rule
for planets like ours. We wouldn’t notice them, because if a far smarter
species wanted to observe us, it would know how to easily do so without
us realizing it. Maybe there’s a rule similar to the Star Trek’s
“Prime Directive” which prohibits super-intelligent beings from making
any open contact with lesser species like us or revealing themselves in
any way, until the lesser species has reached a certain level of
intelligence.
Possibility 9) Higher civilizations are here, all around us. But we’re too primitive to perceive them. Michio Kaku sums it up like this:
Lets say we have an ant hill in the middle of the forest. And right next to the ant hill, they’re building a ten-lane super-highway. And the question is “Would the ants be able to understand what a ten-lane super-highway is? Would the ants be able to understand the technology and the intentions of the beings building the highway next to them?
So it’s not that we can’t pick up the signals
from Planet X using our technology, it’s that we can’t even comprehend
what the beings from Planet X are or what they’re trying to do. It’s so beyond us that even if they really wanted to enlighten us, it would be like trying to teach ants about the internet.
Along those lines, this may also be an answer to
“Well if there are so many fancy Type III Civilizations, why haven’t
they contacted us yet?” To answer that, let’s ask ourselves—when Pizarro
made his way into Peru, did he stop for a while at an anthill to try to
communicate? Was he magnanimous, trying to help the ants in the
anthill? Did he become hostile and slow his original mission down in
order to smash the anthill apart? Or was the anthill of complete and
utter and eternal irrelevance to Pizarro? That might be our situation
here.
Possibility 10) We’re completely wrong about our reality. There are a lot of ways we could just be totally off with everything we think. The universe might appear one way and be something else entirely, like a hologram. Or maybe we’re
the aliens and we were planted here as an experiment or as a form of
fertilizer. There’s even a chance that we’re all part of a computer
simulation by some researcher from another world, and other forms of
life simply weren’t programmed into the simulation.
As we continue along with our possibly-futile
search for extraterrestrial intelligence, I’m not really sure what I’m
rooting for. Frankly, learning either that we’re officially alone in the
universe or that we’re officially joined by others would be creepy,
which is a theme with all of the surreal storylines listed above—whatever the truth actually is, it’s mindblowing.
Beyond its shocking science fiction component,
The Fermi Paradox also leaves me with a deep humbling. Not just the
normal “Oh yeah, I’m microscopic and my existence lasts for three
seconds” humbling that the universe always triggers. The Fermi Paradox
brings out a sharper, more personal humbling, one that can only happen
after spending hours of research hearing your species’ most renowned
scientists present insane theories, change their minds again
and again, and wildly contradict each other—reminding us that future
generations will look at us the same way we see the ancient people who
were sure that the stars were the underside of the dome of heaven, and they’ll think “Wow they really had no idea what was going on.”
Compounding all of this is the blow to our
species’ self-esteem that comes with all of this talk about Type II and
III Civilizations. Here on Earth, we’re the king of our little castle,
proud ruler of the huge group of imbeciles who share the planet with us.
And in this bubble with no competition and no one to judge us, it’s
rare that we’re ever confronted with the concept of being a dramatically
inferior species to anyone. But after spending a lot of time with Type
II and III Civilizations over the past week, our power and pride are
seeming a bit David Brent-esque.
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